A Theory about the War in Lebanon
By destroying Lebanon, support for Hezbollah has, predictably, only increased in Lebanon. Therefore, the war only hurts long-term Israeli security. So that begs the question, why is Israel at war with Lebanon?
My theory is that it has at least something to do with further justification for sanctions against Iran.
Iran right now is not defenseless militarily. Of course, they don't pose a significant challenge to US hegemony, but their military is significant enough that a war would cost a significant number of American soldiers lives, and so it is not politically feasible. Bullies only pick on those who can't fight back.
Sanctions, however, offer the opportunity to gradually, over the course of several years, cripple the Iranian economy and undermine their military strength, until eventually they are defenseless enough for "regime change."
The problem is, in order to impose sanctions, Russia and China must be convinced not to veto. The presence of an alleged, but largely unsubstantiated, nuclear weapons program was not enough. Until recently, Iranian support for Hezbollah has been largely ignored. By creating such a terrible humanitarian crisis in Lebanon, the US/Israel has forced the UN to act, and therefore, they must address the issue of Iranian support of Hezbollah, possibly convincing Russia and China not to veto.
**Clarification:
The above post was merely speculation about the possible goals of the US/Israel in invading Lebanon. All along, it was my intention to imply that I do in fact disagree with these goals. I apologize if I did not make this clear.
posted by Immoral Majority at 12:47 PM
4 Comments:
Hi Immoral Majority,
What you say seems true enough. I know this is going to sound politically incorrect but, One thing that puzzles me is that the Arabian people look like many Jews. How can they hate each other so much when they are from the same people, I mean, we are all from the same people, if we trace our ancestry back far enough it goes back to a very few people. It is true that the Israelis are guilty of war crimes but what is one to do if outnumbered and under attack? There's nowhere to retreat to, so they come out fighting. But who's really behind the original attacks is Iran, therefore it is going to be hard to negotiate a cease fire. Thank you for posting on my blog about King Tut. I enjoyed that discussion.
Friday, 04 August, 2006
Thank you for your comment.
First of all, I personally don't think that Jews and Arabs look very much alike, but surely if more people looked for their similarities than their differences, the world would be a much better place.
Second, Israel is hardly outnumbered, at least logistically. They may in some cases have inferior numbers compared to some of the larger Arab countries, but the US makes sure that they are so well equiped that no other country in the region would dare attempt a large-scale military attack.
In regards to Israel being attacked, that is certainly true, but that attack did not take place in a vacuum. Israel has kidnapped thousands of civilians in the West Bank and the Gaza strip [link], many of them women and children. They also abducted large numbers of Palestinian politicians. Much like the many innocent victims of US abduction in Guantanimo and the secret prisons throughout Europe, they often simply dissappear and have no rights whatsoever.
Please don't misunderstand me. I believe in Israel's right to exist, and I believe they have the right to act militarily in support of their security. What I don't believe is that any country in the world has the right to create a humanitarian crisis as Israel has in Palestine and Lebanon.
Tuesday, 08 August, 2006
Immoral Majority,
I honestly strongly disapprove you with regard to Iran. See, if you want to eliminate "violence" by referring to violence as the only tool, then all what you people will create in the region (for that matter) is more "violence"!! Believe me, if you think that imposing economic and political sanctions on Iran is the best solution for the Western countries and Israel, then let me tell you that you are DEAD WRONG!! We Palestinians are undergoing this economic and political sanction because Palestinians democratically elected Hamas.. Well, if the world stops to intervene, Hamas would have left the government long ago, not because the world wants them to go BUT rather because the people would come to realize this is not what they want! However, trying to decide (as an external force) what is for the people best and welfare, will make them, all of them, oppose you BIG TIME, and on the contrary, stand on their government side. Alright, I know I have digressed on the issue of Palestine, but this is only to tell you that we should learn from history. If you want to repeat same events of chaos and "violence" then go ahead and promote for the sanctions propoganda..
On another issue, I liked your comment on the humanitarian crisis Israel created and still creats in Lebanon and Palestine.
Thursday, 31 August, 2006
Thank you for you comment, Dana Shalash.
I believe, however, that you misinterpreted my position. I oppose any intervention in Iran, either militarily or through sanctions. What I was trying to do was to speculate as to the goals of the US/Israel in invading Lebanon, since none of the official justifications make any sense. All along, it was my intention to imply that I do in fact disagree with these goals.
Thursday, 31 August, 2006
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