Who Really Gains from the BP Alaskan Pipeline Shutdown

Here are some interesting figures relating to the shutdown of the Alaskan pipeline:

Oil prices before the shutdown: $73.75 [link]
Oil prices after the shutdown: $76.98 [link]


BP's worldwide production with the pipeline in operation:
963,000,000 barrels per year, or an average of 2,638,400 barrels per day [link]

BP's gross daily revenue with the pipeline in place:
2,638,400 * 73.75 = $194,582,000

BP owns a quarter share of the oil field served by the pipeline, so they stand to loose about 100,000 barrels per day of crude production [link]. Therefore, their total daily revenue is:

(2,638,400 - 100,000) * 76.98 = $195,406,032

With the higher price, that is $824,032 per day more than when the pipeline was operational. I don't know exactly how much the increased overhead cost to BP will be with the pipeline shut down, but it will certainly be significant, so it seems possible that with the current price, BP will may still lose money. That current price, however, is only the result of the news that the pipeline will be shutdown. When it is actually shut down, prices are certain to rise significantly. If the price reaches $78 to $80 per barrel, BP will take in $3,413,200 to $8,490,000 more per day than with the pipeline operational. If the pipeline is down for 2-3 months, BP stands likely to bring in anywhere from $204,792,000 to $764,100,000 in increased gross revenue if the price of oil is between $78 to $80 per barrel.

Certainly the repairs need to be done, however, had BP not waited until there was an imminent danger of catastrophe, it is likely the line could have been repaired more gradually, with only a minimal interruption in output. I believe that BP's strategy was to wait until the necessary repairs on the line would require a complete shutdown, so that the reduced production would drive up prices, resulting in increased profit. It is a common strategy in other industries as well. Enron, for example, created the energy crisis in California by deliberately taking generating plants off-line for "maintenance." Due to the decreased capacity, there was a predictable spike in energy prices, and Enron's profits were tremendous.